Revenue Scenario Simulator

Revenue scenario planning is the process of modeling multiple possible revenue outcomes based on different assumptions about growth, churn, and pricing. By comparing conservative, base, and optimistic scenarios side by side, you can understand the range of likely outcomes and plan accordingly. Use it alongside the revenue forecast calculator for detailed projections.

Start with your actual trailing 3-month averages for growth and churn as the base case. For conservative, assume growth drops by 30-50% and churn increases by 25-50%. For optimistic, assume growth improves by 30-50% and churn drops by 25-50%. See our scenario planning guide for frameworks used by top startups.

Churn compounds over time, making its impact much larger than it appears monthly. A 5% monthly churn rate means you lose 46% of customers annually. Even small differences between scenarios (2% vs 5% churn) create massive revenue gaps over 12-24 months. Calculate your burn rate to understand how revenue scenarios affect your runway.

Update scenarios monthly with actual data. As you accumulate more months of data, your base case should become more accurate. Revisit scenario assumptions whenever there is a significant change: new product launch, pricing change, market shift, or major customer win/loss. Read our early-stage revenue forecasting guide for best practices.

ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) is your total MRR divided by your number of customers. It matters for scenario planning because price adjustments directly impact ARPA and therefore your overall revenue trajectory. Even a 5-10% ARPA increase can dramatically change your revenue outcome over 12-24 months, especially when combined with healthy growth rates. Model pricing scenarios with the runway calculator to see how ARPA changes affect your timeline.