Scenario Modeler — 3 Paths
Project MRR and cash over 12 months under downside, base, and upside assumptions. See which scenario is most sensitive to which input.
Your Base Case
How scenarios are derived:
Downside: 60% of your growth, 140% of your churn · Base: your numbers as entered · Upside: 140% of your growth, 70% of your churn
How 3-Scenario Modeling Works
Enter Base Assumptions
Your realistic expectation for starting cash, MRR, expenses, growth, and churn.
See 3 Paths
Downside halves growth and raises churn. Upside does the opposite. Base is your numbers.
Plan for the Middle-Lower
Reality usually lands between downside and base. Make capital decisions on that range, not your optimistic forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is 3-scenario financial modeling?
Three-scenario modeling projects your business forward under a downside, base, and upside set of assumptions. It forces you to quantify how bad things could get and how good things could get before committing capital. It is the standard practice for startup fundraising decks, investor updates, and serious capital planning.
How are the downside and upside scenarios derived?
Downside: 60% of your expected growth and 140% of your expected churn. Upside: 140% of your expected growth and 70% of your expected churn. These multipliers represent a typical +/- one-standard-deviation range for early-stage SaaS businesses.
Why separate growth and churn instead of a single net growth number?
Because they respond to different interventions. You can reduce churn by investing in customer success; you can increase growth by spending on marketing. Separating them lets you see which lever matters more in your specific business and which scenarios are most sensitive to each input.
What should I enter as monthly expenses?
All operating expenses: salaries, benefits, software, office, legal, accounting, marketing. Assume expenses are roughly fixed over 12 months unless you are planning specific hires. For a simple model, use your current run-rate as the base.
My runway in the downside scenario is negative. What should I do?
A negative downside runway is the most useful output of this model. It means: if things go modestly worse than expected (not catastrophically), you run out of cash. Standard responses: (1) cut expenses to extend runway, (2) raise capital now while you have leverage, (3) change the business model to reduce churn or increase growth, or (4) plan an ordered wind-down.
How is this different from a simple cash flow projection?
A cash flow projection typically uses one set of assumptions. This tool runs three sets in parallel and shows you the range. Reality usually lands between downside and base; rarely hits upside. Three scenarios let you plan for the middle-lower range instead of betting on your forecast.
Does this handle one-time expenses or revenue events?
The free tool uses steady-state monthly numbers. For scenarios with one-time events (fundraising close, major hire, annual software renewal), use our 13-week cash calendar for near-term precision, or sign up for culta's integrated scenario modeling.
How often should I update my scenarios?
Quarterly at minimum, monthly if you are in a runway-tight period or actively fundraising. The point of scenarios is tracking whether actual results are trending toward base, downside, or upside — and adjusting when reality drifts from base for 2+ months.
Scenarios Against Your Real Data
Get scenario models that pull your actual MRR, churn, and expense data — updated as it changes.